Статья «Динамика электоральных ориентаций жителей Оренбургской области: 2003-2012»

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Оренбургский институт (филиал) МГЮА им. О.Е. Кутафина
Доктор политических наук, профессор

Orenburg Institute (branch) of Moscow State Law Academy
Full Doctor of Political Sciences, professor

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В статье рассматривается динамика электоральных ориентаций населения Оренбургской области. Выявлена закономерность: в период выборов Государственной Думы РФ главные факторы, определяющие голосование избирателей- это партийные ориентации избирателей и оценка ими результатов политики. А на выборах Президента РФ главный фактор- это оценка политических лидеров. Эта закономерность иллюстрируется в статье данными электоральной статистики и данными социологических опросов.

For the analysis of electoral behavior of citizens of the Orenburg region the Michigan model of electoral behavior is used. The model was described in the work of the Center for research surveys of Michigan University as early as by the end of the 1950s. The main principles of the model are: the exploration of long-term affection of voters to a single party or some of the leaders; the exploration of voters' orientation with regard to the subjects and political events. Apart from the record-keeping of social characteristics of voters these 3 psychological variables determine election results. During the elections to the State Duma the main factor which determined voting as consisted with the Michigan model was party orientation. During the presidential election the Michigan model "turns over" and the factor of voting for political leaders takes the first place. Such factors as party identification and appraisal of political results do not profound effects on electoral behavior. In the course of the sociological surveys conducted during the period between the elections in SD and presidential elections, the level of confidence of the voters to the authority subjects, i.e. political leaders, became clear. Upon the statistical information the author also considers the possibilities of election engineering, recognition of elections as non-legitimate by the voters, party identification and leaders' orientation, as well as MSM and Internet influence on public opinion.

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Введение Для анализа электоральног...

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Электоральные ориентации
модель электорального поведения
партийная идентификация
активные избиратели
результаты политики
политическая ситуация
политические лидеры

Electoral orientation
model of electoral behavior
party identification
active voters
issue of policy
political situation
political leaders